“It is going back up again, should I invest?”
It was a Sunday morning and my brother woke me up from the lumber with this question. Sometimes I wonder why doesn’t he consider investing when it is going down?
All of us know that that is a sensible bet to take, but most of us fail to execute it.
So today, I am going to fuel that conviction by adding some numbers.
Presenting – Pulse of Bitcoin. Think of it going deep into the intricacies of what makes this asset as the most hated and loved thing on the internet at the same time.
Shall we?
What’s Up Bitcoin – The Current Market
As of May 3rd, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around the $96,000-$97,000 range. While the climb from ~$70,000 levels earlier this year has been nothing short of impressive, the question remains: is the current momentum indicative of a sustainable bull rally or a classic case of overextension?
The answer, as always with Bitcoin, isn’t binary. On one hand, the Fear & Greed Index remains firmly in the “Greed” zone, suggesting exuberance.
On the other, on-chain data points such as dormant coin movement, miner accumulation, and exchange inflows indicate that we may still be mid-cycle.
The recent pause around $96K isn’t necessarily a sign of weakness, but potentially a consolidation zone before the next leg up.
But then, it barely takes anything to term this asset as DEAD. So what is contributing to this leg of growth?
Let’s find out.
Macro: The Bitcoin’s Tailwind
Was it the big brown haired man in the west? Or was it the trade war?
Turns out, the rapid movement is a little bit of all.
Bitcoin doesn’t operate in a vacuum. Its recent strength has been fueled by a confluence of macroeconomic and geopolitical triggers. Among the most notable:
1) Interest Rate Expectations:
With inflationary pressures waning across Western economies, markets are anticipating a dovish policy by the fed. Lower interest rates reduce the appeal of traditional fixed-income instruments and push capital toward risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Although the Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% since January 2025, analysts now anticipate that any rate reductions may commence in July, contingent upon further economic indicators.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented seven rate cuts over the past year, aiming to counteract economic challenges, including a projected slowdown due to U.S. tariffs.
The Bank of England is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% on May 8, 2025, in response to economic strains from new U.S. tariffs.
Back home, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has implemented two consecutive 25 basis point cuts to the repo rate, bringing it down to 6.00%.
2) Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Flows:
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 is proving to be more than a regulatory milestone. It is now a foundational pillar for institutional adoption. As per Business Insider, total inflows into these ETFs have surpassed $4.2 billion in the past quarter alone. Asset managers like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton now allocate significant portions of diversified portfolios to BTC.
This shift changes the game. Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset for early adopters; it’s becoming a staple in multi-asset strategies.
3) Supply-Side Economics Post-Halving:
The 2024 halving cut miner rewards to 3.125 BTC per block, effectively reducing the new supply of coins. With a steady increase in demand and a tightening supply, the classic supply-demand equation favors higher prices.
Notably, Glassnode data from April 2025 shows miner inventories declining, indicating most are choosing to hold rather than sell at current price levels.
The halving has likely intensified the need for miners to adjust their strategies in response to decreased profitability.
This ongoing decrease in miner-held Bitcoin supply can influence market dynamics by reducing the immediate selling pressure from miners, potentially contributing to a more bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term.
4) Retail Euphoria
Every Bitcoin cycle has a retail mania phase—that period when mainstream media, influencers, and taxi drivers start quoting BTC prices. We’re not there yet.
Google Trends data shows “buy Bitcoin” search interest is up 23% month-on-month but still far from 2021 or 2017 highs. This suggests that we might be in the institutional accumulation and early-adopter re-entry phase. A full retail-driven rally may only materialize once BTC convincingly breaks the psychological $100K barrier.
Investor psychology also plays a role. Many who exited during 2022-2023’s downturn are still wary. Their re-entry could further fuel demand once macro conviction strengthens.
The Next Moves:
So given this momentum? Do we store the gunpowder and wait on the sidelines? Or do we jump in? Let us find out.
1) Trend-Following with Caution
Momentum traders can ride the wave as long as key support levels hold—notably the 21-week EMA, which has acted as a strong dynamic support since January. However, given the rising wedge patterns on short-term charts, position sizing should be conservative.
Stop-losses below recent swing lows ($88K) can serve as insurance against short-term corrections.
2) DCA for the Risk-Averse
For those unsure of short-term price direction but convinced of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) remains a prudent strategy. With every pullback offering a lower cost basis, this approach minimizes the emotional strain of timing the market.
3) Hedging via Options
Derivatives markets offer structured protection. Buying downside puts or setting up covered calls around $100K targets allows traders to capture upside while limiting risk.
But where: Go to Platform for Bitcoin and Crypto
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Conclusion: The New Normal or the Next Peak?
Bitcoin in 2025 is many things at once: a digital asset climbing toward legitimacy, a geopolitical hedge in turbulent times, and a trading instrument still capable of breathtaking volatility.
Whether you’re in it for the tech, the yield, or the memes, one thing is clear: Bitcoin is no longer an outsider. And as it flirts with the six-figure mark, the world is watching—some with hope, others with skepticism, but none with indifference.